A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
